INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

CAD stuck in Narrow range ScotiabankThe Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady and rangebound, supported by bond market dynamics but capped by softer energy prices and equity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

EURUSD: Pin-Bar Candle Signal for Deeper Pullback
EURUSD has shown clear signs of exhaustion after a false breakout above resistance, followed by a strong pin-bar rejection on both the daily and 4H charts.
The failure to hold above the 1.17881.1800 zone confirms strong selling pressure at higher levels. This rejection invalidates the bullish breakout attempt and shifts the bias back to the downside.
On the 4H timeframe, the pin-bar candle reinforces the bearish scenario, suggesting that buyers are losing control and that a corrective move is likely to continue. As long as price remains below the broken resistance, further downside pressure should be expected.
Bearish targets:
1.1675
1.1595
1.1540
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Sweden: December 2025: On hold at 1.75% as expected Baby steps with the rate pathOverview. The Riksbank kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as widely expected and the near-term rate path was unchanged as well (also expected). Towards the end of the path, there was a small upward adjustment with a new end-point in Q4 28 at

EUR/USD - Central Bank Week in Control (18.12.2025)
Description Market Context (Fundamental) FX:EURUSD
This week is central-bank heavy, keeping EUR/USD sensitive to volatility and USD strength:
BoE (Thursday): High impact rate cut expected risk-off tone
ECB (Thursday): Low impact policy hold expected
BoJ (Friday): High impact rate hike expectations, supporting JPY and pressuring USD pairs via risk repricing
Overall, policy divergence + risk uncertainty keeps EUR/USD capped near resistance.
Technical Setup
Price is trading below a key resistance zone and struggling to hold above short-term EMA / cloud levels. Repeated rejections from the highlighted zone indicate seller dominance.
As long as price stays below resistance, pullbacks are likely to extend lower.
Trade Plan Bearish below resistance
Sell-on-rejection from the resistance zone
Momentum confirmation preferred on lower timeframes
1st Support: 1.1685
2nd Support: 1.1660
#eurusd #forextrading #fundamentalanalysis #centralbankweek #priceaction #supportresistance #fxmarket #tradingview #kabhi_ta_trading
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Not financial advice. Always manage risk and use a stop-loss.
Support the Analysis Like if this breakdown helps Comment your EUR/USD bias
Share with fellow traders

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): Double Top Confirms Short-Term Bearish Shift
Hi
Market Structure:
BTC formed a clear double top, signaling exhaustion near recent highs. This structure marked a shift from bullish momentum to short-term bearish control. Following the rejection, price began making lower highs and lower lows, confirming a local downtrend.
Trend & Price Action:
Price is currently trading below a descending trendline, acting as dynamic resistance. Each attempt to move higher has been capped, reinforcing bearish pressure. The recent pullback toward the trendline appears corrective rather than impulsive.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 88,800 89,100
Current Price Area: ~86,900
Major Support / Target: 83,500 83,000 (demand zone)
Outlook & Strategy:
As long as price remains below the descending trendline, downside continuation toward 83.5k remains the higher-probability scenario. A confirmed breakout above resistance would be required to invalidate the bearish bias.

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 4417.
This week, I expect the upward movement to continue and the medium-term 12345 impulse to complete.
I expect to see a small correction, after which I expect to see at least the 4417 area reached at the end of wave 5 or in the extension of wave 3.
This week, after the completion of this movement, I plan to figure out our next steps.
It may be that a major correction awaits us in the near future, but we will talk about that later.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!