INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Clear Break & Retest: Gold Now Eyes a Push Toward $4,405
Hello everyone, Helene here!
Right now, XAUUSD is a textbook example of a market trading inside a well-defined ascending channel, with price consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the structure.
Weve just seen price break above a clear resistance zone and successfully retest it. This area also aligns with the golden pocket from the recent bullish leg, which makes it a highly critical zone to monitor. If this level continues to hold as support, it will act as a strong bullish structural confirmation, increasing the probability that price will extend toward 4,405, which is the upper boundary of the channel.
As long as price maintains above this support zone, the bullish setup remains valid. If not, then the short-term bullish outlook may be interrupted, potentially leading to a deeper corrective move.
Always remember to apply proper risk management.
Good luck, and trade safely.

NZD/USD edges lower below 0.5800 despite robust New Zealand Q3 GDP growthThe NZD/USD pair remains weak near 0.5770 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the Greenback despite a stronger-than-expected New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Bitcoin - Can it reclaim $89.000?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in a crucial zone after the recent decline, positioned between a bullish 4-hour FVG around the lower $85,000 region and a 4-hour bearish FVG just below resistance. This BTC technical analysis focuses on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the lost trendline and the associated FVG, or whether the market instead opts for a deeper correction.
Bullish 4H FVG
The bullish 4-hour FVG around approximately $85,500 is holding for now as an important support level. From this zone, BTC recently initiated a modest bounce, indicating that buying interest is still present. As long as price continues to close above this FVG, there remains technical room for a larger recovery move toward the higher resistance zones.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario centers on a rejection within the 4-hour bearish FVG that aligns with the previously broken ascending trendline. If BTC only revisits this area as a retest and is subsequently sold off, it would confirm that former support has turned into resistance. In that case, lower prices become likely again, with potential targets below the recent lows and deeper into the $80,000 range.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario requires a convincing reclaim of both the trendline and the 4-hour bearish FVG above it. If BTC manages to close above this cluster and then successfully retest it as new support, market sentiment would shift back in favor of the bulls. In that case, BTC would likely revisit the recent highs near the major resistance zone. This BTC technical analysis therefore emphasizes that the reaction around the converging trendline and FVG will be decisive for the next larger move.
Conclusion
BTC is currently at an important crossroads between a still-holding bullish 4-hour FVG around $85,500 and a cri

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Gold - The -50% correction is starting!
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is starting a -50% correction:
Analysis summary:
For the past 10 years, we have been witnessing an underlying bullrun on Gold. Just like we saw back in 2011, the 10 year bullrun was followed by a correction of -50%. Together with the retest of the ultimate resistance trendline, Gold is now clearly shifting bearish.
Levels to watch:
$4,500
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #longtermvision

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Why GOLD is the BEST asset while the US economy fails Gold thrives as the best-performing asset amid worsening US labor market data and low interest rates. Powell's less hawkish stance and expected 2026 rate cuts support this bullish trend. Will the worsening US labor market push Gold to new highs next year? Check it out HERE:
Why GOLD is the BEST asset while the US economy fails - YouTube#goldforecast #usinterestrates #jeromepowell #economicdata #fxstreet #shorts Gold thrives as the best-performing asset amid worsening US labor market data an...