INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Volume Do Not Predict Price! - It Explains It!
Most traders look at volume the wrong way.
They expect volume to tell them where price will go next.
But volumes real job is much more important:
Volume explains why price moved the way it did.
If you learn to read volume correctly, price action becomes clearer, not noisier.
1 Price Up + Rising Volume = Commitment
When price moves higher and volume expands, it means buyers are committed, not just reacting.
This is not random buying.
This is participation.
Rising volume during an impulse confirms that the move is supported by real interest, not just thin liquidity.
Strong trends are built on expanding volume.
2 Price Up + Falling Volume = Warning
When price continues higher but volume dries up, something changes.
The move still exists... but conviction doesnt.
This often signals:
- exhaustion
- a potential pause
- or an upcoming correction
Thats when professionals stop chasing and start managing risk.
3 Sideways Price + Rising Volume = Accumulation or Distribution
This is where most traders get confused:
Price isnt moving much, but volume is increasing.
Thats not boredom.
Thats positioning.
Large players dont chase price.
They build positions quietly while price looks dead.
Breakouts that follow these zones tend to be fast and decisive, because the work was already done.
4 Breakouts Without Volume Are Suspect
A breakout candle looks exciting.
But without volume, its just a move, not a decision.
Low-volume breakouts often lead to:
- fakeouts
- traps
- fast reversals
Volume doesnt need to explode... but it needs to confirm participation.
The Big Picture
Volume is not a signal by itself. Its context.
Price tells you what happened, while

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Forwarded fromFXStreet Forex NewsMost traders get stopped out right before the market moves their way and Wyckoff theory explains exactly why.Smart Money builds positions during consolidation: Accumulation at trend bottoms Distribution at trend topsThis creates the classic spike-out before the real move begins If you want to understand how banks and institutions set traps and how to trade with them instead of against them watch this breakdown

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity