INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

Waiting for the Fed: EURUSD set to explode!
When the entire market is focused on the upcoming Fed meeting , EURUSD looks like an athlete that has fully warmed up and is just waiting for the starting whistle. The current context slightly favors the euro, as the Fed is expected to cut rates soon after a series of weakening labor data, while Eurozone GDP and inflation remain relatively stable. With U.S. interest rates trending lower and the ECB not too dovish, conditions are quite supportive for the euro to regain strength against the USD.
On the H4 chart, price has repeatedly bounced from the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the Ichimoku cloud, showing that the main trend is still upward. The area around 1.1630 acts as a near support level, aligning with the trendline and the upper edge of the cloud, meaning any pullback here is more of a buying opportunity rather than a reversal signal.
The preferred scenario is that if price holds above 1.1630 and forms a strong bullish candle, EURUSD may continue climbing towards 1.1680, which is the previous high and a short-term resistance zone. In short, with both fundamentals and technicals aligned, the sensible strategy right now is to wait for a retest of support to buy with the trend, instead of trying to call a top in a market still driven by bullish fundamentals .

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity