BNBUSD Is this the dead cat bounce before a stronger crash?
Binance Coin (BNBUSD) has been consolidating for 7 weeks (almost 2 months) ever since the November 7 2025 Low on top of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The Bear Cycle that has started on the October Top, can technically be the new Bearish Leg of BNB's 4-year Channel Up.
Having already made a 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross, which brought the Low of Phase 1 on the previous (2022) Bear Cycle, we now focus on whether this 7-week consolidation will lead to a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement test (as on April 04 2022) or straight to Phase 2.
Technically, in order for Phase 2 to begin, BNB should break below its 2-year Higher Lows trend-line. That is the confirmation. Right now the price action is fairly symmetrical to 2022, being around the 0.618 Fib of a potential -71.81% total Bear Cycle decline (as in 2022).
As a result, $400 is still a possible Target but since the 1W MA250 (red trend-line) was what supported the previous Bear Cycle, a fair 'modest' Target would be $525, which would make contact with both the 1W MA250 and the 0.236 Fib.
Nevertheless, a good level for a long-term investor to start buying, regardless of the price tag, would be when the 1W RSI will get oversold (at 30.0.
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