CHFJPY D1
🧭 Market Structure
Price is trending inside a rising channel → overall bullish macro trend.
However, price is now testing the upper channel boundary near 200.80 – 201.00.
This area aligns with a sell-side liquidity zone + Fibonacci -0.272 extension.
Recent candles show rejection wicks, signaling buyer exhaustion.
Market state:
➡️ Bullish trend
⚠️ Short-term overextended at resistance
🔴 Sell-Side Liquidity / Resistance
Level Meaning
200.80 – 201.00 Major sell liquidity + upper channel
204.50 – 205.00 Extreme extension (-0.272 target)
This zone is a high-probability reversal region.
🔵 Support Zones (Pullback Targets)
Level Meaning
198.00 – 197.50 Mid-channel support
195.00 – 194.00 0.5 – 0.618 Fib retracement
192.00 0.786 Fib + lower channel
🧠 Expected Price Path
Primary Scenario — Healthy Pullback
Price fails to break above 201.00.
Drops toward 198.00.
If momentum continues → retrace to 195.00 – 194.00.
Deep correction target → 192.00.
Alternative Scenario — Bullish Continuation
Daily close above 201.00
→ Extension toward 204.50 – 205.00.