USDTRY Cooling After Spike – Where to Next?
The Turkish Lira story continues—this time through the lens of USDTRY , which has been rising relentlessly and just recently showed signs of exhaustion after tagging highs near 38.95 .
🧭 As seen on the chart, after months of controlled climbing within a broad ascending channel, the pair is now pausing. We may finally be witnessing the beginning of a retracement. Key downside targets have now emerged:
33.77 – First area of interest
27.99 – Mid-level retracement
22.65 – Deep support within the channel
These aren't random numbers—they align beautifully with the multi-year channel and prior volatility zones.
📌 Let's not forget, this journey began with a “New Volatility Alert” back in late 2021, and ever since, the USDTRY has mostly respected structural moves. With the Euro pair also showing signs of topping , this could be the dollar’s turn to cool off against the Lira.
📰 Contextual Fuel:
Turkey’s central bank raised rates to 46% in April—one of the most aggressive tightening moves globally.
Over $25B in FX reserves have been used to stabilize the Lira, as inflation forecasts surge past 29.75% for year-end 2025.
Political volatility and macro risks remain, but short-term speculative flows could now reverse.
🚨 Takeaway:
Just like EURTRY, the USDTRY may have finally found its ceiling for now. Traders should monitor price action near 38–39 for possible bearish continuation signs.
There’s a decent chance that the Lira gains ground in the short to medium term—technical and macro forces now point to consolidation or reversal.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
EURTRY Chart: