Weak NFP, Rising Unemployment Is Gold Set to Rally Again?
Hello traders, lets take a fresh look at the current XAUUSD picture.
In the short term, gold is receiving solid support from the news flow . Tonights NFP forecast stands at 51K, sharply lower than the previous 119K . At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected at 4.5%, higher than before. These high-impact U.S. data points are likely to put downward pressure on the USD, which in turn continues to support XAUUSD.
From a technical perspective, the bullish structure remains intact . After the strong prior rally, price is now correcting back toward the 4,270 support zone , where there is a confluence of the Ichimoku cloud and a key demand area . This is a critical zone that allows price to build momentum again, rather than break the trend.
As long as the 4,270 level holds , the most reasonable scenario is for gold to rebound and retest 4,320 (TP1), with a further extension toward 4,350 (TP2) the upper resistance zone. Only a clear break below 4,270 would call for more caution on the bullish outlook.
In summary, XAUUSD is still in a pause within an uptrend, not a sign of weakness. The real question now is not Will gold rise? but rather do you have the patience to wait for the right level and follow the trend?