US 10‑Year Yield: Quiet… but waking up?
The range may look dull, but there are signs of life. The 10‑year has broken above its short‑term downtrend from June, yet it’s still capped by the September high at 4.20% and the 200‑day MA around 4.23%.
Price has now pushed above the Ichimoku cloud, with the lagging line following — a subtle but meaningful shift ahead of NFP and rising geopolitical tensions.
On the weekly chart, strong support from the 2020 uptrend and the 200‑week MA at 3.96% keeps the structure intact. A break above 4.24% could open the path toward the long‑term channel top near 4.61%.
One to keep firmly on the radar.
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The Yield Curve: A Forex Trader’s Early Warning System
TradingView added the Yield Curves tab (found at the bottom right of your chart) to their UI last Year and constantly improved upon it. At first glance, it looks like a tool just for bond traders. But even though I am not a bond trader (yet), I started wondering: Can we use this as an early indicator for Forex trading?
The short answer is YES . While Forex traders usually watch price action and news, bond yields often move before the news hits the screen. In this write-up, I will show you how to use this "hidden" signal to stay one step ahead of the market.
First things first: How to Recreate My Charts
If you want to track this yourself on TradingView, search for these two symbols:
- US10Y - US02Y: This shows the "Spread" the gap between long and short rates.
- FREDFF: This shows the actual daily interest rate set by the Federal Reserve.
By overlaying these, you can see exactly when the bond market (the Spread) moved before the Fed (the Rate).
The Basics: What is a Bond Yield? (The Seesaw Rule)
To understand the chart, you only need to know Bond prices and yields move like a seesaw.
- When traders buy bonds: The price goes up, and the yield goes down.
- When traders sell bonds: The price goes down, and the yield goes up.
Why do we care? Yields represent the "market's opinion" on interest rates. If yields are falling, the market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates soon. If yields are rising, the market expects rates to stay high. Because interest rates drive currency value, the yield curve is the ultimate indicator of what "Smart Money" is doing before the news goes public.
The Simple Math (The "Seesaw"
Bond yields and bond prices move on a seesaw. When one goes up, the other must go down because the interest payment (the "coupon" is fixed.
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US 10Y TREASURY: Crossroad ahead of inflation data
The 10Y Treasury yields rose near multi week highs during the previous week, moving around 4,16% and 4,21% as markets digested the latest US jobs data on Friday. Yields initially climbed on the mixed December payrolls data, with modest job gains, but a drop in the unemployment rate reinforced expectations that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates imminently. The December jobs report showed weaker payroll growth than expected, with only 50K jobs added, yet the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4,4%. This combination boosted short-term rate expectations and helped push 10Y yields higher.
The 10Y yields are currently on a tricky part of charts. Friday's move above the 4,20% strong resistance level, indicates that there is potential for higher levels in the coming period. However, on the opposite side, a short term reversal is also quite probable. The week ahead brings US inflation data, which might trigger some higher volatility in the US Treasury market. At this moment, the level of 4,14% has the highest probability of occurrence in the coming short term period. However, considering mixed jobs data from this week and expected inflation figures in the week ahead, surprises should not be overseen.

US10Y recap
You are not allowed to panic at least until that circle ~4.30% yield 🤭

US 10Y TREASURY: 4,2% is broken, pending confirmation
The 10Y US Treasuries were testing the 4,2% level since September 2025, while this level was finally and strongly broken to the upside on Friday. The 10Y yields closed the week at 4,231%. Why is this event so important at this moment, when the market is talking about Fed rate cuts? The thing is that the Fed can impact short term rates, but investors are determining what returns they want for holding US Treasury bonds for the long term period. This is sort of market communication which is noting its expectations over sustained inflationary pressures, which could keep borrowing costs elevated and limit the scope for future Fed rate reductions. For investors, this implies a cautious stance on bonds and potential pressure on rate-sensitive assets like gold and long-duration equities.
From a technical analysis perspective, this breach indicates that the 4,2% will become the new supporting level and that further moves of 10Y yields could only be to the upside. As per charts, the next resistance level lies somewhere around 4,3% - 4,35% levels. Current geopolitical and political situations must be taken into account. Markets are not happy with uncertainties, so the current talks regarding US takeover of Greenland, and not contributing to a better US economic outlook. Also, the DOJ probe on Fed Chair Powell is also something that is not making markets happy, so they will naturally contract, until the view for the future looks better.
For the week ahead, now that the 4,2% is broken, this level will be tested again, in which sense, the breakout will be confirmed. If the 4,2% is confirmed, this will become the new supporting level for 10Y Treasury yields. In case that yields pull back below the 4,2%, then yields will search back levels around 4,1%-4,15%, but at this moment, there