US Coco potential leg down
Road map laid. impulsive wave down - looking for entry signal and SL zone 15 and 5 min chart. a break of recent highs a good zone for SL a break above SL ZONE is possibly C in ABC structure unfolding. could imply even higher on cards. current risk ratio of min 1:5 ROI.
US Cocoa (CC) – Swing Long from Higher Timeframe Demand Zone
I have initiated a Swing Long position in US Cocoa (CC) inside the 4H Demand Zone marked on the chart.
• On the Monthly and Weekly timeframes, price is sitting deep inside higher timeframe demand zones, i.e., the “cheap territory” where risk–reward becomes highly favorable.
• The arrival into our planned demand zone has been with weak price action, indicating that sellers are losing momentum. This further adds conviction that buyers could take control from here.
• If buyers manage to overpower sellers in this zone, the upside path of least resistance opens up. A 15–25% move higher looks very much on the cards given the clean structure above.
Trade Plan:
• Position: Swing Long
• Stop-loss: Daily candle close below the demand zone
• Target: Open upside with potential 15–25% rally
📌 This setup aligns with higher timeframe demand + weak arrival + favorable location = strong odds on the buy side.
Cocoa move to ATH for Christmas
Just as last year, I predict that this liquidity grab will soon be over, perhaps going sub 7000$ for a few days but then a big move similarly as we've seen last year.
COCOA LONG 1H
Double bottom witj bullish divergence spotted,
Will attempt to buy when price hit 7750
Over optimism with Cocoa harvest?
Cocoa pods usually take 5–7 months to mature. Over the past six months, conditions have been relatively dry, yet some cocoa-related news seems to overlook this factor and overlook the recent weeks rain. I’m closely watching how this will affect the upcoming harvest. In my view, current price levels don’t reflect the impact of these conditions and due to thet, giving a bullish signal.
2024/2025 Mid-harvest estimates were too optimistic, as an example in Ivory Coast +9% compared to the actual. The key question is whether this pattern of over-optimism is repeating.
