Yen Carry Unwind Starting To Show Up?
This week felt off.
Not normal pullback off.
Flow off.
Look at the order everything happened.
First thing that moved?
USDJPY smashed lower.
159 152
fast rate checks / intervention talk / BOJ tightening noise
Thats a HUGE move for a funding currency.
And thats where my brain went
hmm carry stress?
Because FX usually moves first.
Not metals.
Not stocks.
Then what happened next?
Gold and silver ripped all week.
Made sense.
Dollar weaker.
Metals bid.
Normal.
Then out of nowhere
Gold dumped
Silver dumped
Metals got absolutely smoked
Not a normal pullback either.
Gold -20%
Silver -40%+
Thats not macro selling.
Thats get me cash right now.
Big difference.
Thats futures getting hit.
Hard.
Then
Stocks start rolling.
Then
Crypto melts over the weekend.
Then
small regional banks popping up with stress.
Thats not random.
Thats liquidation.
Thats someone unwinding size somewhere.
And the bit that really caught my eye
JPY crosses.
Every time gold + stocks puked
CHFJPY / EURJPY / GBPJPY had those nasty moves.
Not trends.
Just straight air pockets.
100200 pips down in minutes.
Then bounce like nothing happened.
Thats not retail.
Thats desks flattening.
Thats forced exits.
Liquidity disappears price drops order done snap back.
Classic funding stress behavior.
Zoom out and it kinda lines up:
JGB yields creeping up
BOJ talking hikes
yen firming
USDJPY drops hard
Carry trades start hurting.
And when carry hurts, funds dont rebalance.
They just sell whatevers liquid first.
Gold.
Silver.
Index futures.
Raise cash.
Then the FX leg gets unwound.
Then the crosses start flushing.
Even the futures positioning is interesting:
Dealers