Technical Pullback Within a Downtrend
Hello everyone,
At this point, the downtrend remains the dominant scenario for EUR/USD. The recent rebounds do not signal a trend change, but rather look like technical pullbacks pauses that allow price to rebalance before the market decides on its next move.
After topping out around the 1.1800 area, price has continued to weaken and stays below both the EMA 34 and EMA 89. The EMA 34 is sloping downward and acting as short-term dynamic resistance, while the EMA 89 has also started to roll over, confirming that medium-term bearish pressure is still in control. The inability of EUR/USD to reclaim the EMA 34 during these pullbacks clearly shows that buyers lack the strength to shift the broader bias.
Price action further reinforces this view. Rallies into the 1.16801.1700 zone are quickly rejected, with weak momentum and no real follow-through. This is a familiar characteristic of a bearish market: rallies are opportunities to sell, not phases of accumulation for a new uptrend. At the moment, price is hovering around the 1.163x area, near the recent lows, and there are still no signs of a higher low forming.
From a broader context perspective, the US dollar continues to hold a relative advantage supported by stable US economic data, while the eurozone has yet to generate enough momentum to meaningfully support the euro. This imbalance explains why EUR/USD rebounds tend to be shallow and easily sold into.
Wishing you all smooth and disciplined trading!