BTC: The Premium Zone Trap (4H vs 1H)
Bitcoin is at a decisive junction. We are trading in the Premium Zone ($93,700+) with a clear conflict between timeframes. The 4H screams exhaustion (RSI 70.7 + Low Volume), while the 1H structure remains stubbornly bullish, holding above the $92,102 demand zone. The structure is intact, but the conviction is missing.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY (4H + 1H)
We are seeing a divergence between price action and momentum:
The Trap (4H): Price is in the Premium sell zone. RSI is overbought (70.7) and volume is down 41% at these highs. This is classic "divergence" behavior, price grinding up while participation drops.
The Floor (1H): Despite the macro exhaustion, the 1H timeframe has cooled off (RSI 42.9) and is respecting the Ascending Support Trendline ($92,306).
The Magnet: We have a bearish OB supply overhead at $94,760, but a juicy unfilled FVG sitting below at $90,189. Price hates leaving these gaps open.
2. THE CONFLICT: MOMENTUM VS. STRUCTURE
Bearish Case (The Exhaustion):
Volume has collapsed 66% on the 1H timeframe.
MACD is printing bearish divergence on the 4H.
14.1% wick rejection at the $94,760 local top suggests sellers are active.
Bullish Case (The Trend):
CHoCH and BOS are both confirmed bullish.
Price is holding above all major EMAs (20/50/20.
Buyers are defending the $92,102 Order Block.
3. THE TRADE SETUP
We play the reaction, not the prediction. Here are the two probability paths:
Scenario A: The Premium Rejection (Higher Probability) If volume fails to return, gravity takes over.
Trigger: Loss of the 1H support trendline ($92,30
Target 1: $90,189 (Filling the 4H FVG)
Target 2: $86,760 (Major Swing Low)
Invalidation: 4H Close above $94,760