EURUSD
is currently trading below a long-term descending trendline that has been respected since 2018, acting as a major structural resistance. Price has recently rallied into this resistance zone, forming a rising wedge / ending diagonal structure, which typically signals bullish exhaustion rather than continuation.
The current price action suggests a distribution phase, with higher lows but weak upside momentum and repeated rejections near the same resistance area. This increases the probability of a false breakout or final liquidity grab before a bearish continuation.
The resistance zone around 1.1780 1.1825 aligns with previous highs and supply, making it a high-probability area for short positions upon confirmation. Failure to achieve a clean breakout above this zone would likely lead to a downside impulse.
A break of internal structure on lower timeframes (H1 / M15), combined with bearish candlestick confirmation, would validate short entries.
As long as price remains below the long-term trendline and the resistance zone holds, the overall bias remains bearish, supported by expectations of USD strength and potential risk-off conditions.