What to Expect this week for EURUSD
The price has been forming a clear Elliott Wave pattern to the upside since early November 2025. The first impulse wave retraced to the 78.6% level, followed by another bullish impulse that pulled back to the 38.2% level. A pullback to the 38.2% or 28.6% level typically indicates strong bullish momentum. As we observe the final impulse in the classic Elliott Wave structure, the price has now pulled back to the 50% level, a deeper correction than the previous 38.2%. This suggests the price may be starting to reverse. The key question is whether the price will break below the ascending trendline. I believe there is a strong possibility of this occurring. Lets review the economic calendar for this weeks upcoming risk events.
MAJOR RISK EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK
Tuesday, Jan 6
* Germany CPI / HICP Flash (Dec) headline and harmonized inflation market-moving for EUR and ECB expectations. Scheduled for ~130 GMT.
Wednesday, Jan 7
* Eurozone CPI Flash (Dec) inflation for euro area (headline + core) ahead of ECB context.
* ADP Employment Change (Dec) private payrolls preview of Fridays jobs.
* ISM Services PMI (Dec) key for services-led U.S. economy.
Thursday, Jan 8
* Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov) growth/employment gauge for ECB outlook.
* Weekly Jobless Claims labor market breadth check.
* Trade Balance (Oct) net-exports impact on GDP narrative.
Friday, Jan 9
* Eurozone Retail Sales (Nov) consumer demand signal.
* U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) the big one for USD volatility (jobs + wages + unemployment).
Key levels to watch
Upside: Analysts highlight 1.17601.1807 as immediate resistance; a firm break and hold above this zone opens room toward previous highs near 1.18