EMA 34 & 89 Signal That the Uptrend Is Still Not Confirmed
Hello everyone,
BTC is currently in a clear transition phase as the 34 EMA (red) remains below the 89 EMA (blue), or has only barely crossed upward without forming enough separation to confirm a new bullish trend. Price is hovering around 91,00092,000, sticking closely to the EMA cluster, which at this stage acts more as dynamic resistance than a reliable support. Looking left on the chart, the 92,000 zone corresponds to the previous distribution top a major supply area filled with trapped orders making any breakout attempt even more difficult. In other words, BTC is simply retesting the 3489 EMA cluster combined with old supply, and the probability of a strong immediate reversal is relatively low.
From a macro perspective, the hesitation becomes even more understandable. The Federal Reserve and its rate-cut path remain the biggest variables: markets expect further cuts, but nothing official has been delivered. Without clarity on how dovish the Fed intends to be, major funds are unlikely to aggressively rotate into risk-on assets like crypto. Liquidity inflows also remain muted no new spot ETF catalysts, no institutional accumulation announcements, and on-chain data shows no strong capital inflow into BTC. As a result, price has enough momentum to retest EMAs, but not enough to break through resistance and establish a sustainable uptrend. Sentiment is also mixed: short-term traders are taking profit into resistance after the recent dump, while buyers prefer to wait for clearer Fed signals, limiting the strength of any chase buying.
Given this backdrop, I still view the current recovery as a technical bounce within a broader weak structure. With the 34 EMA yet to meaningfully separate above the 89 EMA and price still fluctuating around 9192k, BTC