INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

From cooling inflation to fusion power: Stocks push higherWake up sports fans - Inflation is falling or at least thats what the latest CPI just told

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25
In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between.
You asked - and here are the detailed answers.
This is the continuation of our interview series.
I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view.
Let's dive in.
@just5
Q:
Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October?
Where does the 126k top come from?
Why is Bitcoin dominance so high?
Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall?
Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong?
A:
I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market.
The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question.
As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market.
When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag.
When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals.
Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity

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EURUSD Holds Demand - Retest of 1.1760 Resistance Likely
Hello traders! Heres my technical outlook on EURUSD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish phase inside a descending channel, EURUSD found a solid base near the lower boundary, where selling pressure weakened and price turned around. This reversal led to a clean breakout above the descending resistance, signaling a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish. Following the breakout, price moved higher but entered a corrective phase, forming a series of pullbacks while maintaining higher lows. As momentum rebuilt, EURUSD broke above the key horizontal level and accelerated into an ascending channel, confirming bullish continuation. Price then pushed into the Seller Zone near 1.1760, where a fake breakout occurred indicating strong supply but not a full trend reversal. After this rejection, the pair pulled back into the Buyer Zone around 1.17001.1720, which aligns with previous resistance turned support and the lower boundary of the ascending structure. Currently, EURUSD is holding above the support level, suggesting that the pullback remains corrective. Buyers continue to defend this zone, keeping the bullish structure intact. My scenario: as long as price holds above the 1.1700 Buyer Zone, EURUSD may bounce and make another attempt toward the 1.1760 Resistance / TP1. A confirmed breakout and acceptance above this level would open the door for further upside continuation. A failure to hold support, however, could lead to a deeper correction within the structure. For now, the bias remains bullish, with support holding and resistance as the main upside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost